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  3. Don't Just Do Something, Sit There: An introduction to non-directive coaching by Bob Thomson

If he can stay healthy. It depends what kind of fantasy player you are and how risk-averse you are, but I like him this year. Is he mean to kids?

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Kick animals? Did he spoil the end of "Avengers: Endgame" for you on Twitter? Look, he must have done something, because the fantasy football community hates Chris Carson. And having done something terrible is the only explanation I can come up with. He's the starting running back on the run-heaviest team in the NFL and he'll turn 25 in September. After an injury ended his rookie season after just four games, he came back strong in Year 2.

Last season, he finished with three straight games of at least rushing yards and a rushing score, the longest such streak since Adrian Peterson in he did it four straight. Before you yell " Rashaad Penny " at me, you do know Mike Davis and his touches last season are now in Chicago, right? Penny can receive a significant increase in touches this season and Carson will still get tons of volume.

In fact, those touches may not all go to Penny. There's a chance Carson gets even more work here. While getting healthier as the season went on, no player had more rushing attempts in Weeks last season than Carson 90 for yards and five touchdowns in four games. Last season, the only three running backs to run for at least 1, yards and nine rushing touchdowns were Saquon Barkley , Todd Gurley II and Chris Carson.

They basically scored the same number of fantasy points per game, but all the underlying numbers suggest you'd much rather have Carson than Player B, right? Then someone explain to me why Leonard Fournette Player B above is going plus picks ahead of Carson! Carson is on a better team, with a better QB, better offense, and Fournette has missed 11 games in two years including eight last season. Carson has missed 14 games in two years, but the majority of them came in his rookie season of Carson played 14 games last season.

Neither guy is huge in the passing game although camp reports suggest both will be used more this season , and the Penny situation is a positive for me. Penny is going in the 12th round, will be flex-viable in his own right, and you know exactly whom to handcuff if you draft Carson. Behind Fournette, the Jags are a mess. Chris Carson is free money. Many Others receiving votes: If I knew for a fact that Aaron Jones would, in fact, be free, he'd be on the full-on "love" list, but because we keep hearing running back by committee RBBC grumblings out of Green Bay, I'm merely mentioning him here.

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But man, do I love Aaron Jones. Talked him up this time last year as a must-grab even as many were ignoring him because of the two-game suspension, and he wound up as RB17 on a PPG basis. He should have finished even higher. The talent is unmistakable; he gained at least five yards on On a per-game basis, Free Aaron Jones indeed. If I'm discounting Tom Brady because the Patriots are going to be more run-heavy, it makes sense I'm on their running backs.

I get it, it's always dicey trusting a Patriots running back, but only Todd Gurley had more red zone rushes last season than Sony Michel , news on his knee appears good and reports out of camp are that they are going to use him a lot more in the passing game this year. Meanwhile, James White is the only RB with 55 or more receptions each of the past three seasons, has Brady's trust implicitly and they are using him even more between the tackles five rushing touchdowns for White last season, compared to two for his career prior to that.

Using White between the tackles more and Michel in the passing game makes sense, as it doesn't allow defenses to know what's coming.

Over the past two seasons, both Michel and White are seventh or better in the NFL in terms of percentage of touches that come in the red zone minimum touches. Both guys are values at their current midtier 20s ADPs. Theo Riddick leaving the Lions means more work for Kerryon Johnson , and that's a good thing. In the four games that Johnson received more than 15 touches last season, he averaged I still worry about scoring potential with C. The Eagles were eighth in red zone rushing percentage last year, they should have one of the best offensive lines in football, and as you read above in the Wentz section, Philly's offense will be among the higher-scoring units this season.

A ninth-round pick is an easy price to pay for the upside that Derrius Guice possesses. And that was a year-old Peterson who hardly played in with Minnesota three games and wasn't really used in New Orleans in before a brief resurgence with Arizona for six games. Very quietly, Peterson got the fifth-most rushing attempts last year while finishing as a top fantasy running back. AD is there for depth, especially early as Guice comes back from his knee injury, but make no mistake: in the second half of the season, it will be the Derrius Guice show in Washington. I'd feel better if Trent Williams would show up to camp, but when I interviewed Jay Gruden, he told me he doesn't think Guice has to come off the field on third down, as he's a much better pass-catcher than people realize.

Washington's plan this season is likely running the hell out of the ball, don't turn it over, play good defense and try to squeak out some wins. Guice has lead-back talent and the potential volume makes him a worthy flier in Round 9. Whether you draft Chris Carson or not, Rashaad Penny makes a lot of sense later in drafts. Seattle is likely to run enough to support two viable fantasy RBs and if anything happens to Carson, Rashaad would be worth a lot more than a Penny.

Don't just do something, sit there

See what I did there? Ah, whatevs. We're thousands of words into this thing, take whatever jokes you can get. Believe it or not, the Saints have led the NFL in rushing touchdowns each of the past two years, with 49 total scores. Latavius Murray 's appeal as a handcuff, should anything happen to Alvin Kamara , is obvious, but Murray is also just one of three RBs to score at least six rushing TDs in each of the past four seasons Gurley and the guy Murray is replacing, Mark Ingram, are the others.

I like Murray's chances at exceeding his 12th-round ADP. There have been a lot of jokes on the podcast and social media about my belief in Kalen Ballage. But jokes aside, he's 6-foot-2, pounds and ran a 4.

Don't Just Do Something, Sit There: An introduction to non-directive coaching by Bob Thomson

Big, fast, a good pass-catcher 64 receptions his final two years at Arizona State and all reports out of Miami are that he's in a near-even time-split with Kenyan Drake. Frank Gore leaves carries on the table from last season as he moves on, so it's not hard to see a significant profit for Ballage, who is going late or undrafted in many leagues. I know Royce Freeman was a disappointment last season, but now healthy and with a coaching staff that will utilize him a lot more, Freeman is being criminally underdrafted.

As you'll soon see, I'm out on Le'Veon Bell this year, so in deeper leagues I'll take a very late flier on Ty Montgomery , who is likely to be the main beneficiary should Bell miss any games, like he has in every season of his NFL career but one. Another name to file away for deeper leagues is Darwin Thompson , who is yet another talented toy in Andy Reid's playpen.

Le'Veon Bell, Jets: I don't get it. I really don't. Bell is going top-five overall and that's just nuts to me. We talk all the time about being risk-averse early on, and people are taking Bell in the top five? Do people not realize that he has played all 16 games once in his career and that was back in ? That he missed 18 games in his first five seasons prior to sitting out all of last season?

That he hasn't played football in a year? That the Steelers were a top team in pace of play during Bell's top two seasons and that the Dolphins were dead last in offensive snaps under now-Jets head coach Adam Gase? That the line in New York will be much worse than it was in Pittsburgh, when Bell ran behind one of the league's best?

And that in the last time we saw him there were 38 running backs with at least touches and Bell ranked 34th in percentage of touches that gained plus yards? That his 4.

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That in five of the six years Gase has been an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator, his teams have been 21st or worse in terms of RB receptions? That the only exception to that was the Peyton Manning season, in which Manning threw for 55 touchdowns? THAT'S the guy you're spending a top-five pick on? Hells to the no. What are you counting on here? It's not health 11 missed games in two years. It's not efficiency. Since , he ranks 31st out of 36 running backs minimum carries in yards per carry 3. Advanced analytics? He's a bottom-five back for his career after first contact and has a below-average success rate when his team has more blockers than the defense has rushers.

The only thing you can count on with Fournette is volume. Insane volume.

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If he's on the field, of course. It's not just injuries: Remember the game he got benched because he missed a team photo? The Jags brought in Nick Foles this offseason to stabilize their passing game and that could go either way.

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Maybe they are a better offense and he gets more scoring opportunities or they find success with a passing game and Fournette's high volume drops some. Regardless, there's uncertainty here and RB12 is too high a price for a guy with so many concerns.